DNAK asks: What is the legacy of Jens Stoltenberg after ten years as NATO's Secretary
General?
October 1st will mark Jens Stoltenberg's last day as the Secretary General of NATO. On that occasion, the Norwegian Atlantic Committee would like to honor his work and tenure as the second longest serving secretary general in the history of the Alliance. We have asked renowned researchers, NATO experts and journalists what the legacy of Jens Stoltenberg will be, after ten years in office.
Kate Hansen Bundt
Secretary General, The Norwegian Atlantic Committee
He has strengthened, united, and expanded NATO during an extremely unstable period, where the Alliance's fundamental values have been put to the test by emerging authoritarian regimes, terrorism, and Russia's illegitimate war of aggression against a sovereign neighboring country, to name a few.
Strengthened: He has increased NATO's military capability on collective defence and deterrence through extensive reforms of previously outdated plans, established a new force structure, as well as enhanced forward presence in NATO’s eastern member countries. The number of NATO countries that spend the promised 2% of GDP on their own defence has increased from 3 to 23 allies during his ten-year period.
United: He has managed to unite an enlarged NATO with differing threat perceptions into a joint effort for Ukraine against Russia, joint work against terrorism, and a shared understanding that China represents a "systemic" challenge and an "enabler" of Russia's war. He succeeded in preventing the U.S. from leaving NATO under President Donald Trump and stopping Turkey's Erdogan from continuing to block Sweden's NATO membership.
Expanded: Montenegro, North Macedonia, Finland, and Sweden have become members under Stoltenberg. He was particularly active in clearing obstacles to the Nordic expansion, which progressed very quickly.
Personal qualities that have been crucial: Stoltenberg has a rare ability to find alternative ways to reach compromises and consensus, even with the most uncompromising. He listens to his opponents and acts accordingly, he is open, friendly, and engaged when meeting with most people. As his father Torvald said: he is a very humane person. He has also chosen to be a general who sets the course and offers a political agenda, not just a secretary who manages consensus. And as any skilled leader knows, you are best when working with others, which is why he has managed to recruit the best and listen to wise, capable colleagues.
Mary Elise Sarotte
The Marie-Josée and Henry R. Kravis Distinguished Professor of Historical Studies at the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs
Secretary General Stoltenberg’s legacy as NATO Secretary General will be enormous. He selflessly headed the Alliance through the most challenging years of the post-Cold War era—most notably in 2022, the year of the Russian invasion. As a historian, my opinion is that he will be most remembered not for the specific events of his tenure—although they were significant—but for his calm, steady leadership style in the midst of multiple crises. He also drew on his deep personal knowledge of transatlantic relations to maintain allied cooperation at a time when discord might have dominated. In particular, his familiarity with the United States—his mother was born in Patterson, New Jersey, and he spent part of his childhood in San Francisco—enabled him to promote crucial relations with Washington as major war returned to European soil. In my opinion, the Alliance was fortunate to have his leadership for a full decade and it is an honor to acknowledge his accomplishments as he moves on to new challenges.
Ulf Sverdrup
Professor, BI Norwegian Business School, former Director at Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI)
The Author, Ariel Dorfman, wrote that the secretary's fate, through the ages, has been responsibility without power.
Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has proved him wrong, as responsible exercise of power has marked his tenure.
The security landscape confronting NATO and Stoltenberg has been demanding. But during his decade-long service, NATO has been redirected, strengthened, and expanded. He has broadened NATOs perspective on security, but also unified the Alliance. Stoltenberg leaves us a NATO that is more powerful, more fit for purpose, and recieves stronger popular support.
His hard work, stability and dedication, coupled with his strategic and diplomatic acumen, have been instrumental in ensuring these achievements.
As a good secretary, he has rarely put himself first. Instead, he and his team, have worked to re-discover NATO's foundational mission and values, and worked closely with the member states and strategic partners, not against them.
His secret weapon, I believe, has always been that he has never lost himself, his passion and energy, his honest and transparent style, his humble approach, and the way he always meets people or leaders with friendly curiosity, genuine interest, and respect.
Students of international relations are often pre-occupied by faceless threats and deep structures. Secretary General Stoltenberg has demonstrated the importance of cooperation, organization, hard work, human touch and personal skills, in building security.
He will be missed by many when he now leaves office - by citizens and fellow leaders and the NATO staff- but they will be fortunate to reap the benefit from his contributions.
Bjørn Olav Knutsen
Senior researcher, Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI)
When Jens Stoltenberg took office as NATO’s new Secretary General in October 2014, few would have guessed that his term would last a decade. And not only has he been the second longest serving Secretary General in NATO’s history, it could also be argued that has been the most important and influential one.
First of all, his leadership skills have been crucial to the Alliance during the complete reshaping of the Euro-Atlantic security order as a consequence of Russia’s war on Ukraine – an extent of war that Europe has not seen since the Second World War.
Secondly, and as another testament to his leadership, he has shown remarkable ability throughout his term to build consensus among the 32 member states of the Alliance.
Lastly, he handled US President Donald J. Trump’s anti-NATO stance in a way that saved NATO’s political relevance.
During Mr. Stoltenberg’s ten years as Secretary General, NATO went through its greatest transformation after the end of the Cold War. He has made NATO relevant in handling present day security challenges and threats and, furthermore, kept and upheld a functioning transatlantic security community. Under his leadership, he met times of trial by strengthening NATO.
Dr. Janne Haaland Matlary
Professor, University of Oslo and the Norwegian Command and Staff College
There is an academic debate about the secretary generals of NATO and the UN – are they secretaries or generals? Do they lead or follow? Here, an interesting observation is that professional diplomats often act as just that, diplomats, not taking the lead without consulting in great detail. Former PMs, however, may do the opposite – lead but not consult. It was surmised that Fogh Rasmussen was in this category, not consulting enough before making moves. This may however be a sour critique from ambassadors…
In the case of Jens Stoltenberg, there is little doubt that he consulted much and listened well. His office was accessible, as was his very good staff. And his diplomatic abilities were tested with excellent results in the cases of Trump, Erdogan, and Orban. He took the time to visit them and offer compromises as well as insight into their policy concerns. If Trump is re-elected, we may miss Jens’ firm but diplomatic hand. He stood by Turkey where NATO should stand by Turkey, but quietly tried to find a way for Sweden and Finland into NATO. The Turkish protestations are and were unheard of, but Jens kept his calm and carried on. It would have been easier to show how immensely irritating Turkey’s stance was. But quiet diplomacy carried the day eventually.
Jens has been an excellent diplomat. He has also been a daring leader at the time of real crisis, viz. in handling the Russian attack on Ukraine. He has stood by Ukraine from the first day, developing NATO’s role as a defender of international law and the UN Charter – key elements of the Washington treaty. He has not involved NATO in the war, a key ‘red line’, but has developed the role of partnership with Ukraine. He could have chosen a much more passive role, simply pointing to the US-led group of states that aided Ukraine with weapons. But he has remained very active in explaining why this war cannot be tolerated as one distant to NATO and us. In this he has been a vital player in aiding Ukraine and showing that NATO is not only a military alliance, but an alliance founded on principles and values. He has repeatedly pointed to the rules of war in ad bellum – the ban on aggression in the UN Charter, and in bello, the Geneva Conventions that forbid attacks on civilians and civilian targets. It would have been much easier to distance oneself from the fray as NATO is not a direct party to the war. But by being so eminently clear, Jens has enlightened so many on the high stakes in this war.
When he became NATO Secretary General he was not an expert in security and defence matters. I was moved when I read about his interest in visiting the battle fields in Europe where the terrible debacles of the two world wars, and before that, the Napoleonic wars, took place. He reflected on the enormous numbers of fallen there and showed deep and proper respect for them. There can be no better tutoring than this.
In sum, in the case of Jens Stoltenberg the debate about secretary or general rests on a false dichotomy. He combined both so well and excelled at both.
Ryan C. Hendrickson
Vice President of Academic Affairs and Provost, Professor of Political Science, Eastern Illinois University
Among his many achievements as NATO’s Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg’s ability to successfully manage Donald Trump during the Trump presidency will likely remain his most important legacy. Over NATO’s 75 years in existence, never before had the alliance faced an American president who was so openly anti-NATO and anti-European. Trump challenged NATO’s central pillar: Article 5 and collective defense. In this context, Stoltenberg skilfully cultivated a positive relationship with Trump, emphasizing similar beliefs that Europe needed to devote more resources to defense spending. Despite Trump’s disdain from some elements of NATO, Trump praised Stoltenberg. At the same time, Stoltenberg maintained respect and confidence from European leaders as he remained focused on promoting NATO’s ongoing relevance and centrality to European and global security.
In addition, Stoltenberg’s time in office, ten years, also separates him from all of his predecessors, with the exception of former Secretary General, Joseph Luns, who served for 13 years. Stoltenberg was reappointed four times to lead NATO, repeatedly indicating that the allies trusted him, which is a critical element of leadership at NATO due to the limited formal power and authority existing in this office.
Professor Dr. Julian Lindley-French
Chairman of The Alphen Group (TAG), Senior Fellow at the Institute for Statecraft in London
Jens the Troll Herder
Jens Stoltenberg was the right man, in the right place at the right time. They say that leading academics is like herding cats. Acting as NATO’s Chief Diplomat and CEO, given the nature of the North Atlantic Council, is more like herding trolls, and they all have big teeth! And yet, in his ten years of superb service to me, the NATO citizen, Stoltenberg has done just that.
Thankfully, not much happened on his watch. Russia’s seizure of Crimea and subsequent invasion of the rest of Ukraine, the accession of Finland and Sweden to the Alliance, COVID, the withdrawal from Afghanistan, war in the Middle East, terrorism and vast migration flows into Europe all happened during Stoltenberg’s tenure. Oh, and President Donald J. Trump.
This modest, patient and serious Norwegian held the Alliance together because he had a clear understanding of both his role and his mandate and the skill to realise both. Above all, he is a believer in our Alliance, a man who recognised from the outset that NATO is a team, and his job was to get the most out of it.
Thank you, Jens Stoltenberg. Good luck, Mark Rutte. You have a tough act to follow!
Sverre Strandhagen
Commentator, Dagens Næringsliv
More General than Secretary
In a dramatic decade, Jens Stoltenberg has managed to keep NATO united, and the U.S. within the Alliance. The Secretary General has achieved this by being more of a general than a secretary. He has led the way. His dealing with the U.S. under Donald Trump was particularly creative and proactive, and of great significance. And later, while war has been waging in Europe, he has led NATO with wisdom. He managed to secure broad support. This is his most important contribution and makes him one of the most popular and significant Secretary Generals in the history of NATO. The fact that he was repeatedly extended and stayed on for ten years is a clear testament to that.
A critical point is whether the Russian war of aggression could have been averted with more resolute support for Ukraine at an earlier stage? It is a difficult question to answer, but it is one that lingers over not only Stoltenberg, but other Western leaders as well. More comprehensive military aid could also have been mobilized sooner after the invasion. Stoltenberg is leaving NATO as the war in Ukraine enters a decisive phase.
Throughout the decade, Stoltenberg has been a driving force in getting Allies to strengthen their defence capabilities, according to NATO’s strategic concept. He has done this effectively, with an economist’s sense for numbers and graphs. He has also led the Alliance through a dramatic modernization process, both in terms of new defence plans and a new command structure. Furthermore, he has guided Finland and Sweden into membership with wise diplomatic efforts. He leaves behind a NATO that is in much better condition than when he took office. These are also important aspects of Stoltenberg’s legacy.