TAG Ukraine Strategy 2023 - Second Edition

The first edition of the TAG Ukraine Strategy 2023 was presented 24th of February, which marked one year since Russia invaded Ukraine and started a brutal and ruthless war of aggression against an independent, sovereign European state. Together with The Alphen Group (TAG), The Hague Center for Strategic Studies (HCSS), and the Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI), The Norwegian Atlantic Committee (DNAK) is pleased to share with you “A Comprehensive Strategy to Secure Ukraine’s Future - Second Edition" (link below).

"With Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine into its second year, the Western definition of success must remain the re-establishment of Ukraine as a secure and sovereign European democracy with all the rights and responsibilities that entails. The critical issue the TAG Ukraine Strategy 2023 (the Strategy) thus addresses is the scope and extent of international support required to reinforce that goal across the diplomatic, informational, military and economic domains. For the purpose of the Strategy, “the West” encompasses the Euro-Atlantic Community and those members of the G7 and beyond, such as Australia, Japan and South Korea, the policies of which are largely aligned.

The specific aims are threefold:

• To bring the war to an end on terms acceptable to Kyiv that deny the Russians the fruits of aggression and ensure that Russia does not invade Ukraine again;
• To restore Ukraine as an independent state in full control of its internationally- recognized borders, with the capability to deter and defeat any further Russian aggression; and thereby
• To demonstrate to any potential aggressors that the democratic nations will defend the rules-based international order.

Western support for Ukraine could well decide if 2023 will be the decisive year of the Russian-Ukraine war. The prospect of a total Russian victory that would see the complete dismemberment of an independent Ukrainian state, although by no means impossible, seems remote. However, Ukraine will only prevail with sustained and extensive Western support.

Continued Ukrainian advances and recovery of still-occupied territory cannot be assumed and Russia may have sufficient capability to repel Ukrainian offensives and force a stalemate. Russia enjoys far more strategic depth and industrial capacity than Ukraine which is precisely the reason why Western support remains indispensable.

Beyond the future of Ukraine, what is also at stake in the war is the West’s capacity to shape its strategic environment and shape the European security order on its own terms in a way that upholds the principles of the rules-based international order established following World War Two. All and any collective action will involve risk.

A new European security system will be needed in order to restore respect for the principles of international law that Russia has violated and, over time, to lay the basis for a new relationship with Russia, whatever the outcome of the war. In the short term, the support of Western public opinion will also be indispensable".

The Strategy contains five elaborated proposals that have been worked up by members of The Alphen Group (TAG) since the first edition was published in February 2023. The five proposals are: A Declaration for Ukraine; Mutual Commitments of Defence, Security and Solidarity; A Conference of Democracies on European Peace and Security; G7 plus Partners Ukraine Joint Plan of Action for the Russo-Ukraine War; and An Accelerated NATO Ukraine Membership Action Plan.

The Strategy has been prepared under leadership of Prof. Julian Lindley-French with discussions between experts from fifteen democracies, including Australia and Japan. Signatories, inter alia, include one former NATO Secretary-General, two Deputy Secretaries-General, three former NATO Deputy Supreme Allied Commanders, former ministers, several Chiefs of Defence Staff, and senior diplomats, as well as many subject matter experts all of whom are members of The Alphen Group*.

Information about TAG: TAG represents decades of advanced thinking and doing at the highest levels. TAG share a profound concern about European security and defence. Therefore, TAG has come together to seek solutions for a more secure Europe. The Alphen Group's aim is to move beyond the discussion culture in Europe that so rarely sees words become action and offer leaders a grounded vision for our future security and defence.

*Secretary General of The Norwegian Atlantic Committee, Kate Hansen Bundt, is a member of TAG.

Link to the TAG Ukraine Strategy 2023 - Second Edition:

• TAG Ukraine Strategy 2023 - Second Edition